PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS: TIME TO ASK TOUGH QUESTIONS

Filed Friday, January 4. 2008

What are the real issues the prognosticators seem to overlook with their presidential candidate analysis and predictions? (Originally published on 1/2/2008  in MidwestBusiness.com)
 
In part one of a two-part column, today’s helping will hone in on political predictions for 2008 while the second part next week will cover the general economy.
 
Have you watched some of the year-end business and news shows where they ask the commentators their 2008 predictions and how they think presidential candidates will fare in Iowa?
Iowa doesn’t reflect any of the urban issues that resonate in places like Chicago, New York, Detroit, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami and Dallas. It doesn’t have as good of a cross-section of society as these other cities.
 
To place so much emphasis on one state’s outcome is ludicrous. Just like constantly hyping the antics of Paris Hilton or Lindsay Lohan as typical, though, the mainstream media will want you to think this is the ultimate and definitive action and the selection process is all over.
 
I’ve been unimpressed with how these people who are supposedly “in the know” don’t ask tough questions or raise issues about the American economy. People want real answers today. They don’t want typical campaign rhetoric. Those who buy into the old rhetoric are the same ones who don’t have a clue about where the country and the economy are headed.
 
Instead of focusing on candidate religious preferences, haircuts and banging away at the same “Roe vs. Wade” issue, journalists should be asking tough issues and getting answers for:
  1. Illegal immigration and real solutions (including the deportation of criminals and other undesirables as well as protecting the borders).
  2. The lagging behind on network infrastructure to a point of crippling the future competitiveness of the American market. Lobbyists are killing the global competitiveness of this country in the name of protecting obsolete business models and stifling competition within the network infrastructure area. This should be a major campaign issue.
  3. Establishing realistic goals for American citizens to get a good education that translates into a good job instead of importing cheap labor in programs like H-1B.
  4. An overhaul for education that’s not just throwing more money at it but weeding out all the deadwood and aimless leadership who aren’t addressing a competitive global approach to education. How did some states create funding for illegal immigrants to get college grants and payments?
  5. Cutting the waste in government expenditures on education, entitlement programs and anything else that keeps demanding more funding yet seems to always fall short of accountability.
Until candidates have a solid answer and solution for these issues, they are just pandering to whatever audience they get in front of to speak. Just like a 1950s manufacturing strategy can’t work in today’s market, a 1960s, 1970s or even 1990s political campaign strategy can’t work either.
 
Unfortunately, many voters are stuck in the past unless they have faced a crisis in their family where jobs were lost and underemployment was the only way out. Watch out for those voters because they will be leaving their traditional party affiliations. It’s too bad there’s not a viable third-party candidate.
 
Ross Perot created a lot of worry in the two parties and actually got both candidates to address issues that never would have been discussed. We really need that today. More people have become independent and don’t believe either party represents their views. Issues that need to be addressed in detail include:
  1. We need a real solution for illegal immigration. This issue impacts many government, education and health care agencies that must provide services that aren’t “free”.
  2. Eliminating the extension of H-1B visas. These damage the American middle-class economy. This isn’t 1999 any more. Companies have systematically cut out a lot of higher-priced American labor in favor of cheaper labor to a point where these former employees can’t afford some of the products these companies are making.
  3. Waste in all government agencies and initiatives.
  4. A real plan to be globally competitive in the 21st century.
Even though the mainstream media might want you to think the war in Iraq is the primary issue people are concerned with, the primary issue around here is the economy and more important personal survivability in a questionable job market.
 
Where Do the Candidates Stand?
Instead of focusing on real issues, there’s too much spotlight on political fluff, religious backgrounds and personal lives. Strategists and reporters think this is what people want to hear in order to make up their minds on candidates. Most haven’t tackled the real issues people are concerned about.
 
It’s the same old strategy many have played in the past. The results have always been the same, too. People get alienated by candidates because of trivial issues that get blown out of proportion instead of real, critical issues that should be addressed.
 
Do candidates dance around the real issues because they don’t really know what’s going on in the rest of the country or is it because they really don’t want to say something that may offend a potential voting group? Maybe it’s a little of both.
 
Either way, I don’t see a clear-cut winner after listening to the Republican and Democratic campaign debates as well as individual speeches. Many people are tired of politically correct candidates and want someone politically accurate for a change.
 
While some may say Barack Obama is that type of candidate, I don’t see him taking on hard interviews. If you really have ideas and a plan, you can defend it to the harshest critic and even put that person in his or her place. Why doesn’t he do the tough interviews instead of just dancing with Ellen DeGeneres? I question the true strength of his convictions.
 
Though you may disagree with Hillary Clinton, I think she would defend her convictions, too.
 
No one seems to have captured the Democratic base’s endorsement as they are in a three-way tie. As for Mitt Romney, John McCain and others, they’re all going to make sweeping changes once elected. They fail to address the issue of having to get Congress to go along with reform. ITT Chairman Harold Geneen once said:
Words are words,
Explanations are explanations and
Promises are promises,
But only performance is reality.
 
One person with new ideas and new issues to address has to also work with Congress in order to promote all this positive change. That’s not an easy task today. I don’t believe any candidate in either party’s race exemplifies that talent and skill set.
 
So what’s my prediction of who will win? When it comes to the importance of Iowa, those who win will claim it a huge victory and the ultimate test of being the party’s choice. Those who don’t place first will spin it quickly by saying it’s yesterday’s news, it’s a small state and the race is ahead in the larger states. I tend to agree with the latter.
 
In Part Two Next Week: Predictions For 2008 Economy
Most people are concerned with their financial status, health care costs and are mostly two or three paychecks away from catastrophe if they lose their job.
 
Those who think they are immune to the economy because they work in government or education should think again. Benefits that are no longer 100 percent funded in the private sector will become the same for government workers as the tax base shrinks. The 80/20 programs and health care co-pays are starting to creep into many municipal programs.
 
The mortgage and financial markets are still recovering from the losses of the sub-prime market. It’s not over and many of the experts are all over the place when it comes to assessing the damages. Watch for next week’s observations and predictions.
 
Carlinism: Predictions that are too early are usually wrong.

Last modified on 2008-08-28 06:21

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